June 9, 2026, at 6:00 AM EDT
The tropical weather discussion outlines the current conditions and forecast for the North Atlantic, including the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean. Several tropical waves are moving westward across these regions, with the most notable wave along 81W in the Caribbean, enhancing convection due to its interaction with a mid-level trough. Moderate to strong convection is noted in specific areas. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are contributing to scattered moderate convection in the Atlantic.
In the Gulf of Mexico, surface ridging is prevailing and a surface trough is influencing scattered showers and moderate to strong convection, particularly in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring throughout the Gulf, with slight to moderate seas expected to continue. A potential low-pressure center may emerge later in the week, bringing increased showers and thunderstorms.
The Caribbean Sea is experiencing fresh to strong winds due to a strong pressure gradient influenced by a tropical wave and Tropical Storm Cristina in the Eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh trades are prevalent elsewhere, with some areas experiencing moderate seas. A weak low-pressure center may affect the Gulf of Honduras later in the week.
Over the Atlantic Ocean, surface troughs are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly west of 57W. High pressure systems dominate other parts, with moderate to fresh winds and rough seas reported east of 35W. A weak cold front is affecting the northern waters but will gradually dissipate. High pressure will move eastward, allowing for gentle to moderate winds west of 55W, with increasing moisture expected to create unsettled weather in the western basin.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
