Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
9/26/2026 5:04:32 PM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo

Advisory:
9/26/2026 8:00:00 PM
Location:
19.3, -23.3
Winds:
40 mph
Movement:
NNW at 7 mph
Pressure:
1005 mb

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo is no longer classified as a tropical cyclone. Located at latitude 19.3 North and longitude 23.3 West, about 180 miles north of Sal Cabo Verde, it has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving north-northwest at 7 mph. It is expected to continue moving in this direction through the weekend with a slight slow down and turn to the west-northwest by early next week.

Gonzalo's winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center. Additional weakening is expected, and it should dissipate over the eastern Subtropical Atlantic by early to mid-next week. Swells affecting Cabo Verde Islands may cause hazardous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult your local weather services for further details. No coastal watches or warnings are presently in effect.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo - Key Messages
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo - Key Messages
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo - Current Wind
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo - Current Wind
Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Spaghetti Models
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Spaghetti Models
Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Precipitation
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Precipitation
Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Thunderstorm Probability
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo wind speed projections
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Wind Speed Projections
Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo wind speed history
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Wind Speed History
Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo historical path
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Historical Path

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo Status

The Atlantic hurricane season is intensifying as two tropical storms, named Ian and Julia, are currently churning east of Florida. The development of these systems has prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories, urging residents along the eastern coast to stay alert. Meteorologists are closely monitoring the strength and trajectory of the storms, with the potential for them to either strengthen or dissipate over the coming days. Though no immediate landfall threats have been identified, the evolving situation poses a significant interest for the meteorological community and emergency preparedness teams.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay has shown signs of weakening after initially capturing attention by forming off the eastern coast earlier this week. Despite its decline, the National Hurricane Center has shifted focus to a new tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa, suggesting an active continuation of the Atlantic storm season. In a related development, Tropical Storm Gonzalo has formed, adding to the activity but maintaining an ongoing trend of historic low hurricane occurrences this season. The persistent tracking and analysis of these tropical systems emphasize the unpredictable nature of weather patterns and the need for continued vigilance.

Tropical Depression Fay Tropical Depression Fay

Advisory:
9/26/2026 9:00:00 PM
Location:
29.8, -43.9
Winds:
35 mph
Movement:
S at 2 mph
Pressure:
1009 mb

Tropical Depression Fay is currently located at 29.8N 43.9W, approximately 1120 miles west-southwest of the Azores. The depression is moving southward at 2 mph, and this direction is expected to continue with a gradual increase in speed over the next several days. Fay has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts and a minimum central pressure of 1009 mb. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, and no land hazards are expected.

Tropical Depression Fay - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Depression Fay - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Depression Fay - Current Wind
Tropical Depression Fay - Current Wind
Storm Tropical Depression Fay Spaghetti Models
Tropical Depression Fay Spaghetti Models
Storm Tropical Depression Fay Precipitation
Tropical Depression Fay Precipitation
Storm Tropical Depression Fay Thunderstorm Probability
Tropical Depression Fay Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Tropical Depression Fay wind speed projections
Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed Projections
Storm Tropical Depression Fay wind speed history
Tropical Depression Fay Wind Speed History
Storm Tropical Depression Fay historical path
Tropical Depression Fay Historical Path

Tropical Depression Fay Status

Tropical Storms Fay and Gonzalo are currently weakening as they traverse the Atlantic Ocean, with meteorological forecasts predicting a continued decrease in their intensity over the coming days. Both storms have caused heightened concerns in recent days, but their weakening patterns suggest a reduced likelihood of significant land impact. While Fay has dissipated primarily into a remnant low, Gonzalo has also shown signs of diminishing strength. Nevertheless, monitoring continues as the tropical systems still have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and localized flooding to certain areas within their paths.

In conjunction with the weakening of these storms, meteorologists have identified another area of interest developing in the Atlantic. This system, labeled as Invest 99L, is currently under watch as atmospheric conditions could potentially aid its development into a tropical depression or storm. The National Hurricane Center remains vigilant, assessing the prospects of this new disturbance becoming more organized. Coastal areas are being advised to stay alert, especially those already affected by the seasonal tropical weather patterns, as changes in storm paths and intensities can evolve rapidly.

Invest 90L Invest 90L

Advisory:
9/25/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
Location:
12.9, -22
Winds:
40 mph
Pressure:
1004 mb
Storm Invest 90L Spaghetti Models
Invest 90L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 90L Precipitation
Invest 90L Precipitation
Storm Invest 90L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 90L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 90L wind speed projections
Invest 90L Wind Speed Projections
Storm Invest 90L wind speed history
Invest 90L Wind Speed History

Invest 90L Status

As Texas residents brace for potential impacts from a tropical weather system, meteorologists are closely monitoring disturbances that could lead to storm development. The Gulf of Mexico is seeing increased activity, with systems showing potential to develop into more severe weather events. There exists a significant risk for heavy rains and strong winds, sparking concerns over possible disruptions and urging local authorities to prepare for emergency responses. Despite not yet reaching full tropical storm status, the system poses a credible threat to coastal communities.

In nearby Mississippi and Louisiana, similar weather disturbances are leading to heightened flood risks, prompting advisories ahead of potential severe storms. Residents in these states are advised to remain vigilant, as increasing water levels could exacerbate flood conditions that are already worrisome. Meteorologists have identified certain systems labeled as Invest 90L, which indicate varying probabilities of storm development but still warrant caution and preparedness. Both governmental bodies and residents are urged to stay informed and ready for swift action as the weather conditions unfold.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Radar
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

September 26, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT

Tropical Depression Fay is located near 29.6N 44.0W, moving WSW with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. It shows scattered moderate convection from 28N to 30N and is expected to maintain current strength. A cold front is producing large swells north of 26W and west of 65W.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is situated near 18.8N 23.0W, moving NNW with maximum sustained winds of 35 kt. It will continue moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands, transitioning to a remnant low within 12-24 hours. Swells could cause dangerous surf and rip currents around the islands.

A tropical wave along 63W is moving westward and shows no significant convection. Another wave in the W Caribbean features scattered moderate convection. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are producing significant convection from 9.52N to 15N and 4N to 14N, highlighting active weather systems.

In the Gulf of America, a stationary front extends from W Cuba, with isolated showers present. Meanwhile, the Caribbean Sea experiences gentle to moderate trades and scattered convection between Jamaica and Cuba, with moderate winds and seas forecasted to continue. The Atlantic Ocean sees strong convection ahead of a cold front from 31N68.5W, with moderate to fresh SW winds in areas east of Florida and the Bahamas.

2026 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 8 to 14

  • Hurricanes: 3 to 6

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

  • Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity

This forecast indicates:

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above-normal season

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2026 Storm Names

Arthur- TS Bertha- TS Cristobal- TS Dolly- TS Edouard- TS Fay- TS Gonzalo- TS Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulett Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2025 Hurricane Summary

  • 13 named storms
  • 5 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$9.4 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Erin: In August, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic, becoming one of the strongest storms of the season. Although it remained offshore of the United States, it generated dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and massive waves along portions of the East Coast.
  • Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane in September over the central Atlantic before transitioning into an extratropical system near Europe, bringing impacts to the Azores and parts of Spain.
  • Hurricane Humberto: Humberto became another Category 5 hurricane during the season but stayed over open Atlantic waters, contributing significantly to the season’s above-normal ACE despite limited land impacts
  • Hurricane Melissa: Melissa was the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, intensifying into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Jamaica near peak intensity. The storm caused widespread destruction across Jamaica and was later retired from the Atlantic naming list due to its severity.

Despite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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