The tropical weather discussion highlights ongoing activity across the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding regions. Several tropical waves are observed, with notable activity including a far eastern Atlantic wave along 27W bringing scattered moderate convection, and an eastern Atlantic wave along 42W inducing scattered moderate convection. In the Caribbean, a wave along 64W/65W is associated with isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Windward Islands, while a western Caribbean wave near 87W is generating convection inland over Central America. The monsoon trough extends across the Atlantic, producing scattered moderate convection southeast of its axis.
In the Gulf of America, high-pressure ridging spans westward, causing moderate to fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf due to a pressure gradient over Texas and northeastern Mexico. Scattered convection is noted along the coast of Mexico, supported by a mid-level low and surface trough. For the forecast, the high pressure will maintain fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through Monday night, with slightly diminishing winds expected thereafter.
Over the Caribbean Sea, broad high pressure in the central Atlantic is promoting fresh to strong trade winds in the central and western Caribbean. The forecast anticipates building seas and strengthening trade winds in the central Caribbean from Monday through Tuesday night, especially in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Across the Atlantic Ocean, a large area is under the influence of broad high pressure anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N53W. This is generating moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas south of 22N, with a stationary front located in the eastern Atlantic from 32N30W to 31N39W without significant convection.
For the Atlantic forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 25N/26N will shift slightly south, maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the southern regions, with periodic strong winds near the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola.
June 21, 2026, at 7:15 AM EDTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
