Significant rainfall is expected in the NW Caribbean due to a moist onshore flow near a weakening frontal boundary, with 2 to 4 inches possible over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize through late Thursday. Isolated areas could see over 8 inches, affecting regions such as Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro Sula. Marine areas in the Gulf of Honduras should anticipate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through midweek.
The monsoon trough and ITCZ are active in the Atlantic, with scattered moderate convection south of 07N between 31W and 48W. Strong high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, creating moderate winds and seas, with rough seas continuing in the Yucatan Channel. A cold front is expected to bring gale-force winds near Veracruz and the Florida Panhandle by the weekend.
In the Caribbean Sea, a stationary front from eastern Cuba to the Bay Islands leads to fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in the NW Caribbean and south-central areas. A strengthening ridge will bring increased winds and seas to the NW Caribbean by week's end, with a new strong cold front expected by late Saturday.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a strong cold front from 31N57W to eastern Cuba produces moderate to fresh winds and 8 to 12 ft seas. A stationary front extends from Morocco into the Atlantic, with high seas due to a low pressure further north. The next strong cold front is predicted to enter the western Atlantic by Saturday, with gale-force westerly winds forecast.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
