Subtropical Storm Josephine
Subtropical Storm Josephine is located 245 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and 565 miles southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. It is moving north-northeast at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The storm is expected to turn northeast, increasing in speed and becoming a powerful extratropical cyclone. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.
The storm is likely to move away from the United States, remaining south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Winds of 40 mph extend up to 415 miles from the center. Although no direct threat is posed to the coast, gale-force winds and minor coastal flooding are possible along the northeastern United States. Large swells are affecting the eastern seaboard, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents. Next advisory is at 500 AM AST.
Subtropical Storm Josephine has formed over the Atlantic, bringing with it significant weather concerns for multiple states along the United States East Coast. The storm, characterized by its mix of tropical and non-tropical characteristics, has prompted warnings in nine states as it threatens to deliver coastal flooding, high surf, and strong winds. Meteorologists are closely monitoring Josephine's path, understanding that its subtropical nature can lead to unpredictable shifts in intensity and direction. Authorities in affected areas are urging residents to stay informed and prepare for potential impacts, as the system is expected to maintain its strength over the coming days.
While Josephine stirs the Atlantic, cities like Philadelphia continue to enjoy favorable fall weather, though high surf warnings have been issued along the coast. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the risk of dangerous rip currents and noted that maritime activities may be particularly hazardous. Despite the immediate coastal threats, inland areas are not expected to be significantly impacted, as Josephine's effects are largely confined to the coastal region. As the storm progresses, officials emphasize the importance of heeding weather advisories and ensuring safety measures are in place, particularly in communities susceptible to coastal flooding.
Invest 93L
Subtropical Storm Josephine has formed in the Atlantic, presenting a new threat as severe weather approaches Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring this storm, which has the potential to intensify as it moves closer to the southeastern United States. Residents of Florida and other coastal areas are advised to stay updated on weather forecasts, as Josephine could bring heavy rains and strong winds, disrupting daily activities. Preparedness efforts are crucial to mitigate potential damage and ensure the safety of the affected communities.
In addition to Josephine, meteorologists are observing a separate weather disturbance known as Invest 93L, which could potentially develop into a more defined tropical system. The nor'easter currently tagged as 93L is generating interest due to its potential to transform under favorable conditions. This system, if it strengthens, could be the next named storm, intensifying weather patterns along the East Coast. As atmospheric conditions remain conducive to storm development, regular updates and increased vigilance are essential for residents in the projected paths of these weather events.
October 21, 2026, at 7:15 PM EDT
The monsoon trough is present in the Atlantic, spanning from The Gambia's coast through to 08N30W, connecting with the ITCZ extending to near 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 15W and 30W.
In the Gulf of America, a trough is observed from Corpus Cristi to the Bay of Campeche, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong to near-gale winds with rough seas are noted west of the trough and south of 21N, while moderate winds and seas are elsewhere. Anticipated weather changes include strong NE winds and significant rough seas developing over the eastern Gulf starting Friday night, spreading towards the central Gulf over the weekend.
The Caribbean Sea experiences a weak pressure gradient facilitating moderate or weaker winds and seas. From Friday night, fresh E to SE winds will develop over the eastern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh northerly winds expected over the western basin due to a developing low near the Bahamas and strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a stationary front stretches from Bermuda to east-central Cuba, sustaining moderate to fresh winds and rough seas west of the front. A low-pressure system east of the trough is producing fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. By late Friday, a stronger pressure gradient is forecast to bring widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas, with gale-force winds expected by Sunday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
