Invest 94L
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Florida is currently monitoring a number of weather disturbances across the Atlantic. One of the main areas of interest is a system located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, which shows a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next few days. Simultaneously, forecasters are keeping an eye on other tropical waves that might garner enough strength to transform into significant weather systems as they traverse the warm oceanic waters, which are conducive to cyclone formation.
Experts at the NHC are utilizing advanced satellite imagery and computer models to predict the potential paths and intensities of these weather disturbances. The primary concern remains on the possible impacts these systems might have on coastal regions, factoring in wind strength, rainfall, and possible storm surges. Residents in areas that could be affected are advised to stay informed and prepared by following updates from the NHC and local emergency services. The upcoming days are critical, as changes in atmospheric conditions could quickly alter forecasts, emphasizing the importance of continuous monitoring.
November 12, 2026, at 4:15 AM EST
The Tropical Weather Discussion from the NWS National Hurricane Center in Miami covers North America, parts of Central America, the Gulf of America, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast. Satellite imagery and meteorological analysis provide the foundation for these observations. Notably, isolated moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough and ITCZ region, which extends from the coast of Senegal to French Guiana.
In the Gulf of America, a 1014 mb low is bringing scattered moderate convection, while a strong cold front is anticipated to move across the area, promoting fresh to locally strong winds near Tampico and Veracruz. High pressure will lead to increasing easterly winds over the weekend, with a second cold front expected by Monday.
The Caribbean Sea experiences fresh to strong trades due to the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a low-pressure system. Winds are moderate to weak elsewhere, with some convection occurring. The approach of a cold front is expected to weaken these trades, though fresh to strong trades may reestablish early next week.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a weak cold front near Florida is accompanied by fresh to locally strong winds, while two frontal boundaries extend across the north Atlantic. The pressure gradient is diminished, with moderate or weaker winds prevailing in most areas. A stronger cold front is expected to move by the end of the week, influencing winds and potentially bringing fresh to strong NE winds south of 27N.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
