Invest 94L
As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, weather forecasters are closely monitoring several tropical disturbances, notably Invest 94L, which is situated in the eastern Atlantic. While initially generating notable interest with its potential trajectory toward the southeastern United States, including Florida, recent forecasts suggest that its development prospects remain low. The disturbance is currently battling environmental challenges such as dry air and wind shear, factors that typically inhibit tropical cyclone formation. Despite these hurdles, meteorologists continue to analyze spaghetti models to forecast any possible shift in behavior that could lead to weather impacts in the days ahead.
Another system, Invest 92L, previously captured forecasters' attention but has since demonstrated diminishing chances for development, providing some relief to residents along its possible path. Meanwhile, out in the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Lala is approaching Hawaii, though it is expected to weaken before making any significant impact. The confluence of these weather patterns highlights the necessity for vigilance among coastal communities, reminding residents to remain prepared as the season continues. The fluctuating nature of these disturbances underscores the unpredictability of tropical weather systems and the importance of staying informed through reliable sources.
August 17, 2026, at 8:15 AM EDT
A series of tropical waves are present across the Atlantic and Caribbean regions. The eastern Atlantic sees a wave along 18W moving west at 10-15 kt, while the central Atlantic wave is near 38W, moving at 15 kt. Another wave east of the Lesser Antilles is at 57W, progressing at 15-20 kt, and the western Caribbean has a wave near 78W, moving at 15 kt with strong convection over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
High pressure in the Gulf of America results in light winds and slight seas north of 24N, with moderate NE to E winds in the SW Gulf. The Gulf will maintain high pressure, encouraging gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas throughout the week.
The Caribbean Sea sees fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 10 ft due to a tropical wave in the SW Caribbean. Winds are generally moderate to fresh elsewhere, with forecasted intensification from Wednesday night as a new High develops east of the Bahamas.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a cold front associated with a low-pressure system near 33N54W is generating fresh to strong SW winds. The central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of high pressure. The cold front will weaken into a trough by Tuesday, with diminished winds but lingering showers expected through Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
