June 12, 2026, at 6:15 AM EDT
Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize is anticipated due to a broad low-pressure system over northern Central America and southern Mexico. The combination of upper-level divergence and a tropical wave is expected to result in rainfall up to 6 to 8 inches over northern Belize and southern Quintana Roo, potentially causing localized flooding. Residents should seek guidance from local meteorological agencies.
Tropical waves are currently active. One is near 26W-27W moving west, while another is at 46W. The eastern Caribbean has two more waves near 68W and 73W-74W, although no significant convection is reported near the latter.
The Gulf of America is experiencing fresh to strong winds along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in areas south of 25N. A surface trough will shift northwest past the Yucatan Peninsula, while high pressure persists in the northeastern Gulf. This will continue to support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through the weekend.
In the Caribbean Sea, trade winds and moderate to rough seas are prevalent due to a high-pressure system north of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong winds will persist off Colombia, and the northwest Caribbean through Saturday evening.
Over the Atlantic Ocean, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 26N. A broad ridge is affecting trade wind conditions, with fresh winds and moderate seas in various regions. The current pattern will sustain moderate E-SE winds and anticyclonic breezes through the weekend, with fresh winds near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola each afternoon into late evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
