August 9, 2026, at 7:15 PM EDT
Tropical waves are currently traversing the Atlantic, with notable systems along 21W, 36/37W, and 49/50W. The wave near 36/37W shows potential for gradual development this week but faces less favorable conditions later on. Another wave near 49/50W is surrounded by Saharan air, inhibiting convection. A new system could emerge off the African coast, with gradual development likely later in the week.
The Gulf of America experiences scattered showers and thunderstorms, influenced by a surface trough extending from Destin, Florida. A ridge is dominating the wind flow, supporting primarily gentle to moderate winds. Pulses of fresh winds are expected north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche in the evenings.
In the Caribbean Sea, the pressure gradient between high pressure south of Bermuda and a low near Colombia is generating fresh to strong trade winds, especially offshore Colombia. These conditions will persist through the week, with nightly wind surges in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. An Atlantic ridge shift may increase wind speeds later in the week.
The Atlantic Ocean is witnessing three progressing tropical waves. A ridge governs most waters, promoting moderate to fresh trades in regions. A weak trough near the U.S. southeastern coast is causing showers and thunderstorms off northern Florida, expected to prevail tonight. The ridge is forecast to move southward, possibly strengthening easterly winds later in the week.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
