August 1, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave along 24W is moving west with scattered convection east of 33W. A central Atlantic wave at 49W is producing convection between 42W and 53W. In the eastern Caribbean, a wave near 68W brings moderate convection between 66W and 71W.
The monsoon trough and ITCZ are active, with a low pressure near 17N24W and extending towards 55W. In the Gulf of America, showers and isolated thunderstorms affect NE Gulf waters amid moderate westerly winds and 2-3 ft seas, with high pressure dominating elsewhere. Fresh E to NE winds will occur off the Yucatan coast nightly, while scattered showers and moderate to fresh southwest winds develop in the far northern Gulf later this weekend.
In the Caribbean, a surface trough and upper-level system cause showers near the Leeward Islands and off Costa Rica. Fresh easterly trades and 6-10 ft seas prevail, with rough seas off Colombia subsiding. Fresh to strong trades will persist central basin-wide with Honduran coastal winds strengthening at night. The tropical wave near 68W will move across the basin by Monday night with showers and gusty winds.
In the Atlantic, upper troughs trigger showers west of 60W and north of 22N. The subtropical Atlantic is controlled by a high near 33N50W with moderate NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas. A high-pressure ridge will lift near 28N by Sunday, maintaining strong SW winds and shower activity along with fresh trades near Hispaniola at night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
