Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
9/25/2026 5:04:24 PM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Advisory:
9/25/2026 8:00:00 PM
Location:
16.2, -22.7
Winds:
50 mph
Movement:
N at 12 mph
Pressure:
1000 mb

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is currently passing near the northeastern Cabo Verde Islands. As of the 800 PM CVT advisory, the storm is located at 16.2N 22.7W, about 35 miles SSE of Sal, Cabo Verde, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, moving north at 12 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cabo Verde Islands, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area.

The storm is expected to move north-northwestward over the weekend, with the center passing near the northeastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and moving north by Saturday. While little change in strength is expected tonight, weakening is anticipated to begin by Saturday morning, potentially leading Gonzalo to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles northeast of the center. The storm is expected to bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to eastern parts of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday, with less than 1 inch on the western side. Additional rain is expected along the coast of Guinea-Bissau, Gambia, and Senegal.

Swells from Gonzalo are likely to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday, posing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Residents should consult local weather services for updates.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - Key Messages
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - Key Messages
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - Current Wind
Tropical Storm Gonzalo - Current Wind
Storm Tropical Storm Gonzalo Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Spaghetti Models
Storm Tropical Storm Gonzalo Precipitation
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Precipitation
Storm Tropical Storm Gonzalo Thunderstorm Probability
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Tropical Storm Gonzalo wind speed projections
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Projections
Storm Tropical Storm Gonzalo wind speed history
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed History
Storm Tropical Storm Gonzalo historical path
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Historical Path

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Status

Tropical Storm Gonzalo has developed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, situated south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This formation puts an end to a stretch without storm activity in the Atlantic, marking a significant moment as it ends a historic hurricane drought. Gonzalo, carrying gusty winds, is currently affecting the Cabo Verde Islands, bringing notable weather changes to the region. The National Hurricane Center has been actively monitoring the storm’s progress and providing updates on its trajectory and impact.

Despite its current activity, Tropical Storm Gonzalo is not forecasted to pose a threat to Florida or the mainland United States. Meteorologists continue to analyze its path and strength, focusing on its potential effects on the weather patterns in the area. The storm underscores the unpredictable nature of Atlantic weather patterns, highlighting the importance of preparedness in regions prone to tropical storms. While Gonzalo's development is significant for the Atlantic, it serves as a reminder of the transitional nature of hurricane activity in the region.

Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Storm Fay

Advisory:
9/25/2026 9:00:00 PM
Location:
29.8, -43
Winds:
50 mph
Movement:
WSW at 5 mph
Pressure:
1004 mb

Tropical Storm Fay has weakened over the Atlantic Ocean. As of 900 PM GMT, Fay is located at 29.8N 43.0W, about 1075 miles west-southwest of the Azores, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It is moving towards the west-southwest at 5 mph, with an expected gradual shift to the southwest and an increase in speed. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and no land hazards are anticipated. Further weakening is expected in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Fay - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Storm Fay - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Storm Fay - Current Wind
Tropical Storm Fay - Current Wind
Storm Tropical Storm Fay Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Fay Spaghetti Models
Storm Tropical Storm Fay Precipitation
Tropical Storm Fay Precipitation
Storm Tropical Storm Fay Thunderstorm Probability
Tropical Storm Fay Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Tropical Storm Fay wind speed projections
Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Projections
Storm Tropical Storm Fay wind speed history
Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed History
Storm Tropical Storm Fay historical path
Tropical Storm Fay Historical Path

Tropical Storm Fay Status

Tropical Storm Fay is currently making its way across the Atlantic Ocean, with meteorologists closely monitoring its movement and potential intensification. According to reports, there is a possibility that Fay could strengthen before eventually weakening as it continues its journey over the Atlantic waters. The storm has drawn significant attention as it approaches regions that could be affected by its path. Residents in the Bahamas and parts of the southeastern United States are advised to stay alert and prepared for potential impacts in case the storm shifts direction or intensifies.

Meanwhile, another system named Gonzalo is also being tracked by meteorologists as it drifts in the Atlantic. With two significant weather systems developing concurrently, there is increased vigilance in forecasting and preparing for any eventual land impact. Gonzalo and Fay’s developments are closely watched due to their potential effects on weather conditions, particularly in areas known for being prone to tropical storms and hurricanes. Both systems highlight the need for continued monitoring and preparedness as the Atlantic hurricane season progresses.

Invest 90L Invest 90L

Advisory:
9/25/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
Location:
12.9, -22
Winds:
40 mph
Pressure:
1004 mb
Storm Invest 90L Spaghetti Models
Invest 90L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 90L Precipitation
Invest 90L Precipitation
Storm Invest 90L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 90L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 90L wind speed projections
Invest 90L Wind Speed Projections
Storm Invest 90L wind speed history
Invest 90L Wind Speed History

Invest 90L Status

As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, Tropical Storm Fay has reemerged in the water's dynamics. Initially, it weakened, but thanks to the prevailing conditions of an active super El Niño, it has regained strength. Experts closely observe the atmospheric patterns influenced by this phenomenon, noting that it significantly alters the trajectory and intensity of such storm systems. The heightened super El Niño continues to shape the Atlantic's climate, fostering a more vigorous and unpredictable storm season.

Amidst this evolving meteorological landscape, Invest 90L has been identified as a potential threat in the Atlantic, suggesting a possible escalation into a named storm. Monitoring agencies indicate varying scenarios for its progression, with an increased likelihood of development as it moves into the Gulf. Coastal regions, particularly Texas, are advised to prepare for potential impacts, including heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This alignment of climatic conditions underscores the essentiality of early preparedness and vigilant observation during the volatile hurricane season.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Radar
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

September 25, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT

Tropical Storm Fay is currently located near 30.1N 42.5W, approximately 900 nautical miles west-southwest of the Azores. The storm is moving west at 3 knots with maximum sustained winds of 50 knots and gusts up to 60 knots. Fay is expected to gradually shift southwest and slow down, with possible slight strengthening in the near term but overall weakening anticipated through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is situated near 14.7N 22.6W, just 100 nautical miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving north-northwest at 9 knots with sustained winds of 45 knots and gusts up to 55 knots. Gonzalo is projected to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands today and gradually weaken over the weekend. The storm is causing life-threatening surf and rip currents in the area.

A cold front stretches from 31N72W across the northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas, peaking at 13 feet in some areas, are expected to follow this front, gradually decreasing by Saturday morning.

Heavy rain continues to impact parts of Central America and southern Mexico due to a mid to upper-level trough and warm sea surface temperatures. Regions including southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, western Honduras, and El Salvador are likely to experience life-threatening flash floods and landslides due to this enhanced tropical moisture.

In the Caribbean, weaker pressure trends will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the southern central region, with gentle winds elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Atlantic's tropical and subtropical north regions experience gentle trades as the Bermuda-Azores High contrasts with lower pressure along the ITCZ.

2026 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 8 to 14

  • Hurricanes: 3 to 6

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

  • Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity

This forecast indicates:

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above-normal season

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2026 Storm Names

Arthur- TS Bertha- TS Cristobal- TS Dolly- TS Edouard- TS Fay- TS Gonzalo- TS Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulett Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2025 Hurricane Summary

  • 13 named storms
  • 5 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$9.4 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Erin: In August, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic, becoming one of the strongest storms of the season. Although it remained offshore of the United States, it generated dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and massive waves along portions of the East Coast.
  • Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane in September over the central Atlantic before transitioning into an extratropical system near Europe, bringing impacts to the Azores and parts of Spain.
  • Hurricane Humberto: Humberto became another Category 5 hurricane during the season but stayed over open Atlantic waters, contributing significantly to the season’s above-normal ACE despite limited land impacts
  • Hurricane Melissa: Melissa was the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, intensifying into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Jamaica near peak intensity. The storm caused widespread destruction across Jamaica and was later retired from the Atlantic naming list due to its severity.

Despite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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