Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Potential Tropical Cyclone One poses a significant threat of dangerous flash flooding over parts of Texas and Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast, from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, with the storm currently located about 35 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, and about 330 miles southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds are at 30 mph as the system moves northeast at 6 mph.
The system is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm by early Wednesday as it moves offshore and possibly reenters land over eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana by late Wednesday. Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 20 inches, poses a risk of life-threatening flash flooding across the affected regions, including parts of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
In addition to the rainfall, there is a potential for 2-4 feet of storm surge along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are anticipated along the northwestern Gulf Coast, with a possibility of a tornado occurring from the Upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in the warning and watch areas should stay informed through local National Weather Service forecasts.
The weather community is closely monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico identified as Invest 90L, which shows potential to develop into Tropical Storm Arthur. Meteorologists are analyzing various spaghetti models, which illustrate possible paths the storm could take as it moves. These predictive models currently suggest that the system could impact areas along the Gulf Coast, sparking concerns for regions that are no strangers to tropical systems. The National Hurricane Center is actively observing this system to determine its potential for further development and its eventual classification as a tropical cyclone.
Despite the early stage of development, the disturbance is already drawing attention due to atmospheric conditions conducive to intensification. Experts predict that, if favorable conditions persist, Invest 90L could strengthen and necessitate the issuance of storm warnings in affected areas. The potential impacts on Florida and surrounding regions are being discussed, focusing on possible heavy rainfall and gusty winds. As forecasts continue to evolve, residents in areas under threat are advised to stay updated with the latest advisories from meteorological authorities.
Invest 90L
Weather experts are closely monitoring a developing tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, referred to as Invest 90L, which could potentially strengthen into Tropical Storm Arthur later this week. Currently, the disturbance is characterized by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but models suggest conditions might become favorable for gradual development. The forecast trajectory indicates a general northeastern movement, which could bring it into the Florida Panhandle area by the weekend. Meteorologists are using spaghetti models to track the system's progression and predict its possible impact on states like Florida and Georgia.
The potential formation of Tropical Storm Arthur has raised concerns about the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds along the Gulf Coast. Although projections for its intensity and path remain uncertain, there is a growing consensus that the storm may have a short-lived impact. Experts caution residents in the affected areas to stay informed about weather updates as the system evolves. Given the complexity of tropical storm forecasting, it is crucial for local communities to prepare for varying weather scenarios as this disturbance nears the shoreline.
June 16, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is currently located near 27.1N 97.8W, about 50 miles south-southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas, moving northeast at 5 knots. The system is anticipated to strengthen into a tropical storm by early Wednesday as it moves offshore the Texas coast, then approximately parallel to the upper Texas coast, before moving inland into extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, and the system is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches, potentially causing life-threatening flash flooding in the Mid to Upper Texas Coast, much of Louisiana, and parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Additionally, four tropical waves are being monitored: one in the eastern Atlantic along 26W, another in the central Atlantic along 48W, and two in the Caribbean at 65W and 80W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with these waves. A monsoon trough and ITCZ also extend across the Atlantic, contributing to scattered moderate convection.
In the Gulf of America, strong southeast winds and seas of 4 to 7 feet prevail west of 88W due to a tightening pressure gradient. These conditions are expected to persist, with fresh to strong winds over the western Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. A subtropical ridge continues to dominate the Atlantic, contributing to moderate to fresh trade winds. A surface trough ahead of a weak frontal system will bring fresh southwest winds near northeast Florida, expected to expand eastward. The front is forecasted to move offshore by early Saturday, with strong winds in the afternoons near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
