Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics is updated at 2AM, 5AM, 8AM, 11AM, 2PM, 5PM, 8PM, and 11PM daily
11/15/2026 5:03:41 PM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Invest 94L Invest 94L

Advisory:
11/7/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
Location:
26.2, -61.8
Winds:
40 mph
Pressure:
1000 mb
Storm Invest 94L Spaghetti Models
Invest 94L Spaghetti Models
Storm Invest 94L Precipitation
Invest 94L Precipitation
Storm Invest 94L Thunderstorm Probability
Invest 94L Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Invest 94L wind speed projections
Invest 94L Wind Speed Projections
Storm Invest 94L wind speed history
Invest 94L Wind Speed History

Invest 94L Status

A newly identified weather system, referred to as Invest 94L, is developing in the Atlantic, drawing attention due to its potential to impact Florida. Meteorologists are closely monitoring this system as it currently exhibits characteristics that could lead to further intensification. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted that conditions this weekend might become conducive for the system to develop into a tropical depression or storm. Residents and officials in Florida are advised to stay informed and prepared as this storm evolves, as it could bring heavy rain and strong winds to the southeastern United States.

Currently, Invest 94L is situated east of the Caribbean, with forecasts suggesting a northwest trajectory over the coming days. Although the possibility of it making landfall in Florida remains uncertain, the atmospheric conditions, including warm Atlantic waters and low wind shear, present a favorable environment for its development. Meteorologists emphasize the importance of vigilance and preparation as the situation unfolds, underscoring the unpredictable nature of such systems. Authorities recommend monitoring updates regularly as forecasts will be refined with more data becoming available.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Radar
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

November 15, 2026, at 1:15 PM EST

A gale warning has been issued for the Gulf of America due to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure from the southeastern U.S. and a possible low-pressure system in the western Gulf. This will lead to E winds increasing to gale force particularly near Texas and Louisiana.

The monsoon trough and ITCZ will bring scattered moderate convection with notable activity extending from specific latitudes across the Atlantic.

In the Gulf of America, fresh to strong winds and building seas are prevailing over the NW Gulf, with the highest activity seen from Texas to Louisiana. Winds will diminish by mid-week in the western Gulf, but strong winds will continue in the NE basin due to a persistent pressure gradient.

In the Caribbean Sea, moderate to fresh winds are predominant, with scattered moderate convection near the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong trades in the central basin are expected to persist through mid-week.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, a cold front is influencing weather patterns with fresh to strong winds and rough seas primarily north of 27N. This front will weaken and move east by Tuesday, with high pressure systems influencing wind patterns and rough seas expanding into late week.

2026 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 8 to 14

  • Hurricanes: 3 to 6

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

  • Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity

This forecast indicates:

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above-normal season

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2026 Storm Names

Arthur- TS Bertha- TS Cristobal- TS Dolly- TS Edouard- TS Fay- TS Gonzalo- TS Hanna- TS Isaias - Cat 3 Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulett Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2025 Hurricane Summary

  • 13 named storms
  • 5 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$9.4 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Erin: In August, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic, becoming one of the strongest storms of the season. Although it remained offshore of the United States, it generated dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and massive waves along portions of the East Coast.
  • Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane in September over the central Atlantic before transitioning into an extratropical system near Europe, bringing impacts to the Azores and parts of Spain.
  • Hurricane Humberto: Humberto became another Category 5 hurricane during the season but stayed over open Atlantic waters, contributing significantly to the season’s above-normal ACE despite limited land impacts
  • Hurricane Melissa: Melissa was the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, intensifying into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Jamaica near peak intensity. The storm caused widespread destruction across Jamaica and was later retired from the Atlantic naming list due to its severity.

Despite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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