Invest 95L
In the Western Atlantic, meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing weather disturbance known as Invest 95L. Forecast models predict that this system has a high likelihood of intensifying into a tropical storm, potentially dubbed Tropical Storm Jerry. As of now, communities along the East Coast of the United States are advised to stay alert to updates given the storm's possible development and path. The system's progression is being tracked to assess any imminent risk to coastal regions.
The National Hurricane Center is actively analyzing spaghetti models to predict the potential trajectory and impact of Invest 95L. Areas such as Fort Myers and Naples in Florida are under particular observation, with experts trying to determine the storm's exact movements. As the system advances, local authorities in Florida are preparing for possible weather disruptions, focusing on safety measures for residents. The current forecasts emphasize the importance of vigilance and preparation for those in the potential impact zones.
August 23, 2026, at 2:15 PM EDT
A low-pressure system, Invest AL95, located southeast of Bermuda, shows potential for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours as it moves north. This system may develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm.
Multiple tropical waves are moving westward, with the eastern Atlantic wave accompanied by moderate convection. Another wave in the central Atlantic exhibits scattered moderate convection, as does the wave in the eastern Caribbean. The northwestern Caribbean wave has limited shower activity.
In the Gulf of America, high pressure influences light to gentle winds, while surface troughs generate fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan Peninsula and southwestern Gulf due to surface troughs and moisture advection.
Fresh to strong trades are present in the south-central Caribbean, driven by pressure gradients. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere, with winds expected to increase with passing tropical waves.
In the Atlantic, Invest AL95 continues to show potential for development. Surface troughs and a cold front present limited convection, while high-pressure ridging influences moderate trades over the basin. Projected developments include increased trades near the Bahamas and the potential for tropical wave influence on trades by mid-week.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
