July 5, 2026, at 5:00 AM EDT
A series of tropical waves is observed across the Atlantic and Caribbean. There is a tropical wave along 23W/24W, moving west at 15 knots, and another tropical wave near 33N, moving at the same speed. Additionally, a tropical wave near 43W is progressing westward, and a Caribbean wave near 75W is noted, showing scattered moderate convection.
The monsoon trough and ITCZ segments are active with scattered moderate convection from 05N to 12N between 25W and 55W. The subtropical ridge influences weather patterns over the Gulf of America, supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft. Localized fresh to strong winds are expected off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thursday.
In the Caribbean, the subtropical ridge supports moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong winds off northeast Colombia and Venezuela. Seas range from 5-7 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off northeast Nicaragua due to divergent flow. Fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will persist through Thursday, with near-gale force winds offshore of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela during nights.
For the Atlantic, the subtropical ridge remains dominant, supporting gentle to moderate breezes west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds to the south and east. Moderate to strong trades are expected near Hispaniola and the Windward Passage by nightfall.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 8 to 14
Hurricanes: 3 to 6
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity
This forecast indicates:
Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional detailsDespite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.
2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
