Watching the Tropics

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10/7/2026 8:03:47 PM
Atlantic Hurricane Basin Tracking Updates
Watching the Tropics tracks storms destined to the United States East coast, the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico out of the Atlantic hurricane basin.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Storm Isaias

Advisory:
10/7/2026 7:00:00 PM
Location:
22.8, -92.4
Winds:
65 mph
Movement:
ENE at 8 mph
Pressure:
994 mb

Tropical Storm Isaias is currently being investigated by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. At 7:00 PM CDT, Isaias was located at 22.8N 92.4W, about 200 miles WNW of Progreso, Mexico, and 480 miles SSW of the Mississippi River. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is moving ENE at 8 mph. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mississippi River to Yankeetown. Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday, with further strengthening expected. Isaias is forecasted to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical Storm Isaias - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Storm Isaias - 3 Day Tropical Storm Winds
Tropical Storm Isaias - Key Messages
Tropical Storm Isaias - Key Messages
Tropical Storm Isaias - Peak Storm Surge
Tropical Storm Isaias - Peak Storm Surge
Tropical Storm Isaias - Flash Flood Risk
Tropical Storm Isaias - Flash Flood Risk
Tropical Storm Isaias - Current Wind
Tropical Storm Isaias - Current Wind
Storm Tropical Storm Isaias Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Isaias Spaghetti Models
Storm Tropical Storm Isaias Precipitation
Tropical Storm Isaias Precipitation
Storm Tropical Storm Isaias Thunderstorm Probability
Tropical Storm Isaias Thunderstorm Probability
Storm Tropical Storm Isaias wind speed projections
Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Projections
Storm Tropical Storm Isaias wind speed history
Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed History
Storm Tropical Storm Isaias historical path
Tropical Storm Isaias Historical Path

Tropical Storm Isaias Status

In an exciting development for high school sports, the Georgia High School Association (GHSA) has announced its Thursday night football games lineup for the upcoming week. This decision comes as a strategic move to accommodate teams and fans who may be impacted by inclement weather conditions anticipated over the weekend. The initiative highlights the association's commitment to ensuring the safety and convenience of athletes and supporters while sustaining the momentum of high school football enthusiasm across the state.

In broader regional weather developments, Tropical Storm Isaias is projected to escalate into a hurricane, posing a significant threat to the Gulf Coast by the weekend. Despite concerns about potential adverse weather conditions, the much-anticipated Alabama vs. Georgia game remains scheduled. Organizers are closely monitoring the situation, prepared to make necessary adjustments should the storm's trajectory impact the safety and participation in the event. This unpredictable storm illustrates the ongoing challenges faced by event planners and residents in the Gulf Coast amidst a dynamic storm season.

7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES 19
Sandwich Composite
Sandwich Composite
Today's Tornado Risk
Today's Tornado Risk
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
Global Tropics Hazard Outlook
30 Day Coral Reef Watch
Current Atlantic and Gulf Radar
Current Atlantic and Gulf Winds

Atlantic Hurricane Basin Summary

Tropical Storm Isaias is currently situated near 22.7N 92.9W, approximately 200 nm west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico. The storm is moving east-northeast at 7 knots, with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots and gusts up to 65 knots. It is anticipated to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, with further strengthening expected. Isaias is projected to pass north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Swells affecting the Yucatan Peninsula will extend northward, creating hazardous surf and rip current conditions.

Information on other tropical systems includes a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 21W and another in the Caribbean near 71W, both moving westward. Moderate to locally strong winds are reported in conjunction with these tropical waves, affecting regional weather patterns. Additionally, the Gulf of America is experiencing a 1008 mb low near 27N86W, contributing to fresh to strong winds and influencing weather conditions across the area.

The monsoon trough and ITCZ are contributing to scattered convection in their respective regions, while the overall weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic is maintaining generally moderate winds and seas. Forecasts suggest a strengthening of the trade winds over the central Caribbean towards the weekend as high pressure redevelops SE of Bermuda.

In the Atlantic, a cold front is currently west of 55W, and the Azores high is dominating the eastern Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh winds. Conditions are expected to evolve with the movement of Tropical Cyclone Isaias and the development of high pressure southeast of Bermuda, which will affect wind and sea patterns over the upcoming days.

October 8, 2026, at 12:15 AM EDT

2026 Hurricane Prediction

​NOAA's 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.

  • Named Storms: 8 to 14

  • Hurricanes: 3 to 6

  • Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3

  • Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median

  • Primary Influencing Factor: Developing El Niño conditions expected to suppress Atlantic storm activity

This forecast indicates:

  • 55% chance of a below-normal season
  • 35% chance of a near-normal season
  • 10% chance of an above-normal season

Despite the lower forecast, NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to create a major disaster, and residents in hurricane-prone areas should still prepare as usual for the season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30

2026 Storm Names

Arthur- TS Bertha- TS Cristobal- TS Dolly- TS Edouard- TS Fay- TS Gonzalo- TS Hanna- TS Isaias- TS Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulett Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

Key: Active Past Future

*Press/click the storm name to view additional details

2025 Hurricane Summary

  • 13 named storms
  • 5 hurricanes
  • 4 major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)
  • Total damage: ~$9.4 billion
Notable Hurricanes
  • Hurricane Erin: In August, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic, becoming one of the strongest storms of the season. Although it remained offshore of the United States, it generated dangerous surf, coastal flooding, and massive waves along portions of the East Coast.
  • Hurricane Gabrielle: Gabrielle strengthened into a powerful Category 4 hurricane in September over the central Atlantic before transitioning into an extratropical system near Europe, bringing impacts to the Azores and parts of Spain.
  • Hurricane Humberto: Humberto became another Category 5 hurricane during the season but stayed over open Atlantic waters, contributing significantly to the season’s above-normal ACE despite limited land impacts
  • Hurricane Melissa: Melissa was the strongest storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, intensifying into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Jamaica near peak intensity. The storm caused widespread destruction across Jamaica and was later retired from the Atlantic naming list due to its severity.

Despite fewer total storms than forecasted, the 2025 season produced several extremely intense hurricanes, including three Category 5 systems, making it one of the more powerful Atlantic seasons in recent history.

Atlantic Hurricane Statistics

Named
Hurricanes
Major
Average
14.4
7.2
3.2
High
30
15
7
Low
4
2
0

Most Active Hurricane Season

2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes

Costliest Hurricanes

Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion

Harvey (2017) - $125 billion

Strongest Hurricanes (Based on Wind Speed)

Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)

Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in MPH

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.

About Watching the Tropics

Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.

Designed in Florida by

Dillaman Research DillaDev.com

What does Watching the Tropics mean?

"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.

Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.

What is an "invest" in the context of hurricanes?

An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."

When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.

The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.

What is a Tropical Depression?

A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).

Key characteristics:

  • Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms
  • Has a defined surface circulation
  • Lacks the wind intensity of stronger tropical cyclones
  • May eventually strengthen into a tropical storm if conditions are favorable

It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.

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