February 17, 2026, at 5:00 PM EST
The monsoon trough remains over west Africa, with the ITCZ extending from 06N18W to 02S45W along the coast of Brazil and scattered moderate convection within 90 nm north of the ITCZ west of 30W.
In the Gulf of America, a ridge from high pressure over the Carolina coast maintains gentle E breezes across the basin, with moderate SE winds off Texas and northern Tamaulipas. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft, and no significant weather is noted at present. The forecast indicates increasing S flow in the western and central Gulf due to a strengthening pressure gradient later this week, leading to a cold front bringing fresh to strong winds by Saturday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea are found south of central Cuba and between Honduras and Grand Cayman, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Colombia. The forecast predicts ongoing fresh to strong NE winds over the S central Caribbean, development of fresh NE winds around the Windward Passage, and impact of large N swell on the tropical N Atlantic and Anegada/Mona Passages beginning Thursday.
In the Atlantic Ocean, a cold front extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Fresh to strong winds are noted around the front, with 8 to 11 ft seas primarily in N to NE swell. A dissipating stationary front is to the east, with gentle to moderate winds persisting. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate midweek as a high-pressure ridge settles, and large NW to N swell will occur, with diminishing seas later in the week.
The 2026 Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2026 in
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025.
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 10
Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 3 to 5
Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE): 95% to 180% of the median
This forecast indicates a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30Key: Active Past Future
*Press/click the storm name to view additional details2020 - 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes
Hurricane Katrina (2005) - $125 billion
Harvey (2017) - $125 billion
Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 215 mph (345 km/h)
Hurricane Allen (1980) - 190 mph (305 km/h)
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating system that classifies hurricanes based on their sustained wind speeds and the potential damage they can cause. It helps communicate the intensity of hurricanes and the likely impacts on structures and environments. The scale does not account for factors like storm surge or rainfall, focusing only on wind speeds.
Watching the Tropics was originally built as a personal storm tracker with only the most important charts for the Atlantic hurricane basin. Numerous sites are available for tracking hurricanes, but Watching the Tropics minimizes extra "noise" and shows only what you need.
Designed in Florida by
"Watching the tropics" refers to monitoring tropical weather systems, such as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, in regions close to the equator. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts often use this phrase during hurricane season to indicate that they're keeping an eye on developing weather systems that could potentially strengthen and impact areas like the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean.
Websites, news outlets, or weather services also use "Tropics Watch" to keep the public informed about the latest developments in the tropics, especially during peak hurricane season.
An "invest" refers to an area of disturbed weather that meteorologists are investigating for potential tropical development. The term "invest" is short for "investigation area."
When an area is designated as an invest, it is given a number (between 90 and 99) followed by the letter "L" for systems in the North Atlantic or "E" for systems in the Eastern Pacific. For example, "Invest 91L" would refer to the 91st area of interest in the Atlantic basin for that season.
The designation of an invest allows meteorologists to focus their resources on a specific area, utilize specialized forecasting models, and issue updates as needed.
A tropical depression is a type of tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of less than 39 mph (34 knots or 63 km/h).
Key characteristics:
It's the first stage of development in the tropical cyclone classification used by the National Hurricane Center, followed by tropical storm and then hurricane.
